highway funding hits tipping point: let’s pull a 180
When I suggested to our Lihue town plan committee that we shouldn’t assume traffic is gonna keep growing, and that “auto dependence” (not “pedestrian friendliness”) was our biggest challenge, I got some blank stares.
Then, the assurances kicked in: “We see no sign of people giving up their cars!†Committee members seemed relieved to have disposed of my concerns so deftly.
Perhaps they spoke too soon. Vehicle miles driven have passed a tipping point (via nytimes).
From systems thinking, we know this could have multiple reciprocating effects and implications…and not just for town plans. Highway funding (from gas taxes) and emissions are also falling.
Needless to say, I’m stunned by Monday’s acknowledgement by USDOT Secretary Mary Peters that the nation’s roads are seeing a historic drop in vehicle miles traveled.
See, historically, miles traveled have risen by 1-2 percent every month. Yet, the drop in May was the seventh consecutive month of decline, and the ninth in the last 12 (see chart above). Fact is, Americans started driving fewer miles somewhere around June last year.
Fact is, FHWA’s Doug Hecox first announced the new downward trend in May (two months ago).
Then, Hecox made a point of quoting Acting Federal Highway Administrator Jim Ray saying, “that Americans are driving less underscores the challenges facing the Highway Trust Fund and its reliance on the federal gasoline excise taxâ€.
Of course, falling gasoline consumption triggered by higher fuel prices have the feds and states worried about their declining gasoline tax take.
Now, Ian Lind notes the prospective impacts on Hawaii’s highway funds, noting that “higher fuel costs lower the gas tax revenue, forcing officials to look to other sources to cover budgeted costs. Double ouch!”
So, back to the top: our town plan hinges on highway improvements and traffic increases…neither of which may materialize.
‘Spose this could presage a tipping point in the way we do planning?
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Oh, and, Aloha to the AIA’s SDAT team members Peter Arsenault and Clark Llewellyn, with whom I got to spend some time yesterday as part of their ‘fact-finding‘ trip here. They’ll be back in November for a 3-day charrette.
‘Tis perfect timing, methinks, for Lihue to get some outside help thinking outside the box for a sustainability perspective on our town plans…Mebbe we could plan for less ‘auto dependence’ in future. Doh!
Published by Ken on August 1st, 2008 tagged HI-specific, Systems Thinking
One Response to “highway funding hits tipping point: let’s pull a 180”
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August 2nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
Great post, Ken. We could certainly do ourselves a great service by recognizing that this is a trend that will continue. I can think of a lot of projects that would serve us better than the tens of millions slated for ‘road widening’ in the net couple years.